Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ: AMRN) is seeing quite a bit of after-hours chatter this evening. According to various posts on message boards and social media, the company’s scripts may be better than expected due to a rumor surrounding Symphony Health.
Whether or not the rumor is true, I believe that there’s quite a bit of value locked into AMRN, and now may be a great time to get in. Here’s what’s happening:
AMRN Finds Itself In The Center Of A Rumor
As mentioned above, There’s a rumor surfacing in the after-hours this evening about Amarin Corporation. According to the rumor, Syphony Health is having trouble getting its hands on data with regard to prescription sales.
If the rumor is true, the prescriptions in the fourth quarter may be better than reported. Let’s not forget, the fourth quarter was the best quarter for Vascepa sales to date, with about $77 million in net revenue reported as a result of sales of the drug.
A good example of how the rumor is being circulated is a post from BBecker3138 on StockTwits. In this post, BBecker3138 said:
$AMRN The rumor is Symphony is having trouble getting data. If true, scripts r even better than being reported.
Although that would be great news for AMRN and its investors, I generally don’t make moves based on rumors. After all, rumors are one of the most common ways that the market is manipulated. Nonetheless, even without this rumor, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the stock.
Take A Look At Vascepa Sales
Brad Loncar of www.LoncarBlog.com has done a great job of tracking Vascepa sales. He has even put together a chart that gives a great visual of what we’re seeing. See his chart below:
As you can see from the chart above, Vascepa sales may stumble here and there, but all in all, the trend in sales in an upward one. Moreover, in the fourth quarter of 2018, with $77 million in net product revenue, the company achieved record sales.
If increasing Vascepa sales isn’t enough to gain some interest in AMRN, there are two big coming catalysts that will likely do just that. These include:
Coming sNDA Submission For Vascepa
Currently Vascepa is approved by the FDA to reduce triglycerides (fats) levels in adults. However, Amarin may soon benefit from an expanded label, leading to a potentially robust increase in sales.
In a report recently released by AMRN that discussed 2018 preliminary results and 2019 outlook, the company said that it plans on submitting a sNDA to the FDA by the end of the first quarter of 2019.
The label expansion goals come after a massive study of 8,179 statin-treated adults, known as the REDUCE-IT study. 59% of patients involved in the study had diabetes at baseline. Moreover, 71% of patients had established cardiovascular disease at the time of enrollment.
The data from REDUCE-IT showed a 31% risk reduction for heart attack, a 28% risk reduction for stroke, and a 20% reduction of risk for cardiovascular-related death. Due to these results, the company seeks to expand the label to include an indication to treat the residual cardiovascular risk of patients with high triglyceride levels.
Should the label expansion be approved, Vascepa will be the first drug on the market that has been approved for this indication. Nonetheless, between now and then, there are plenty of catalysts ahead. Including:
- sNDA submission;
- potential updates throughout the FDA review process; and
- the potential approval of the Vascepa label expansion.
Potential Vascepa Approval In Canada
Another list of potential coming catalysts has to do with the company’s efforts to get Vascepa approved in Canada. In fact, on April 1, 2019, AMRN announced that Health Canada granted priority review status for its New Drug Submission surrounding Vascepa capsules.
As a result of the Priority Review status, Amarin Corporation will enjoy a shorter review period. Generally, the review period for new drugs in Canada is 355 days. However, under Priority Review, AMRN can expect to receive an answer from Health Canada within 215 days of the New Drug Submission.
Of course, this comes with several potential catalysts as well. Some of them include:
- NDS submission in Canada (expected by the end of April, 2019);
- updates with regard to the regulatory process in Canada;
- the potential, and highly likely approval of Vascepa in Canada.
AMRN Is A Potential Takeover Target
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that at the moment, Amarin makes a great potential takeover target. The reason for this is simple. Vascepa is already approved in the United States. However, without the label expansion and Canadian approval under its belt, larger companies are still capable of getting a discount on the company if they choose to acquire it soon.
The value that AMRN would offer to a larger company is incredible. Think about the sales growth that would likely happen if the label expansion for Vascepa happened. With Aspirin no longer being recommended by the American Heart Association unless prescribed by your doctor, the market is looking for a replacement for daily, preventative measures in heart health. Vascepa, could fill that void if the label expansion is approved, opening the door to incredible growth in revenue.
Moreover, with AMRN knocking on the door to potential Vascepa approval in Canada, the argument that the stock is highly undervalued at the moment only grows stronger. With that said, a big player has a lot to gain if they act quickly here.
At the end of the day, when digging into Amarin Corporation, it is hard to argue against the idea that the stock represents a potentially lucrative opportunity. With increasing Vascepa sales and coming catalysts that will likely put rocket boosters under sale numbers, this is a stock that is worth digging into!
What Do You Think?
Where do you think AMRN is headed moving forward? Join the discussion in the comments below!