Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ: AMRN) is a stock that I’ve been watching closely as of late. With the stock down more than 3% today, many are wondering if the opportunity is still as good as many believe it to be.
First and foremost, it’s important to remember that it’s not a good idea to judge a stock’s potential based on a daily or short term movement in price. To be successful in the long run, you’ve got to do a bit more digging than that. Here’s why I still believe that AMRN has the potential to be a big gainer in the long run:
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Vascepa Is The Key To AMRN Stock Growth
Vascepa is the flagship product at Amarin Corporation. The drug was originally approved in 2012 to lower triglyceride levels in high-risk patients. However, with a relatively small patient population based on the label, sales haven’t been amazing.
Nonetheless, this is likely all about to change. Recently, AMRN submitted a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the FDA, requesting to change the label to include the reduction of cardiovascular risk among a large patient population.
Moreover, the treatment is already receiving a strong reaction from the FDA. In fact, Priority Review was granted in late-may. This set the stage for a decision from the FDA in September of this year.
The Market Potential Is Hard To Ignore
Should Vascepa’s sNDA be approved, the market potential would be incredible. The target audience would include tens of millions of Americans and that in multiples around the world as approvals come in.
Moreover, it’s the right time for a drug like this to hit the market. Recently, the American Heart Association changed its stance on once-daily baby aspirin to control cardiovascular risk. The new stance is that patients should avoid the use of daily aspirin unless instructed by a doctor.
Unfortunately, this leaves millions of Americans with little to no options when it comes to the control of cardiovascular risk. So, should the Vascepa sNDA be approved, the drug could quickly become a blockbuster, generating massive amounts of revenue.
Analysts Seem To Agree
At the moment, there are 4 industry analysts that are coveraing AMRN. It is expected by these analysts that the year 2019 will be the last year that Amarin Corporation posts a loss. In 2020, analysts are expecting that the company will turn a profit of $50 million, suggesting an annual growth rate of around 70%.
The truth of the matter is that this type of growth isn’t likely to happen without the approval of Vascepa’s sNDA. However, it seems as though analysts are expecting for the application to be approved, simply by looking at their projections for when the company will start to hit profit.
Final Thoughts
The stock market is full of peaks and valleys. So, making investment decisions on short term movements in value are just about always a mistake. However, if the stock offers up a good value proposition, declines could prove to be opportunities to get in on long run gains at a discount.
That may be exactly what we’re seeing from AMRN today. Should Vascepa be approved for the reduction of cardiovascular risk, the revenue growth would be tremendous, leading to strong growth in value for investors. So, if you see this being the case, now may be the time to jump in.
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What Do You Think?
Where do you think AMRN stock is headed moving forward? Join the discussion in the comments below!